The negative class drop is often overlooked by the public. Here are several examples from the 2006 Fairplex Park meeting where the connections gave plenty of hints that there were problems, yet the fans knocked the horses down to ridiculous prices.
If you are a regular (or semi-regular) at the races, you'll start hearing stories. An owner loves his horse or the trainer does or something like that. How do you process that information? Here's a bonus story. Years ago, before off-track betting and when Vegas still had their own betting pools, you could fly to Vegas to pull off a betting coup. Charlie Whittingham was said to have one horse per Del Mar meeting that the whole barn would bet. One weekday morning, I got a call from a travel agent friend who worked in downtown Del Mar. She called to say that Whittingham's foreman had come in to book a round-trip one-day flight to Vegas, leaving at 11:00 a.m. that morning. Whittingham had two horses in that day. We bet them both and one won at better than $25. I'm sure there wasn't much buzz on this horse, but the barn did know.
You have an $8 Pick 3 ticket and you've won the first two legs. You stand to make several hundred dollars if your final choice wins. Should you 'save' by making new bets on other horses in that final race?
Taking a stand against comebacking "Class" horses can prove very profitable, as the public assumes that they will romp and don't work too hard on finding alternatives.
Picking a representative race is more than just using the biggest speed rating. You have to take into account how that number was earned. In short, you have to dig a little deeper.
Some of the best plays in racing coming in claiming races where all the horses are for sale, but not all are racing in the best form. Fresh horses can lead to big payoffs where everyone is concentrating on that last race line.
If you've seen some of our handicappers' products, you will notice that several use betting lines. This article discusses how to make a betting line. Anyone can do it with a little practice.
Horses shipped west must be respected. This article covers a brief period at Del Mar some years back, but the angle continues to pay dividends. The "Stranger Danger" concept is as old as the Digest itself.
The 'bounce' is when a horse fires a big race and regresses in his next. It can happen after a big comeback race, or after two particularly tough races. But, really, is the bounce a useful explanation for poor performance?
Sometimes you look at a race and can't make head nor tails of it. They all look bad. There will be a winner, though, and it's possible to employ some reverse handicapping to find that horse.
What is a false favorite? It's a short-priced horse who does not deserve the backing, but gets it because he's either down in class sharply and/or connected to a good barn. Some horses are being dropped off wins. They are another key to big payoffs, especially in the Pick 3's.
What if the heavy favorite needs the race? What if his connections are pointing to a more lucrative race? What if he breaks poorly? What if he doesn't care for this track? What if I play against the favorite and win?
The Digest uses these Race Competition charts to assign our class figures. We adjust the RCL charts every quarter and there are separate charts for both both Southern and Northern California. When assigning class values to races on other circuits, you can use the Southern California numbers for New York most of the year, Florida in the winter and most of the tracks in Kentucky. Use the No Cal charts for lesser circuits.
Game Planning. Think this subject gets old, think again. Winging it at the track makes for great stories, but in the long run it can be very very expensive.
In the spring, 3-year-olds begin to compete with the older horses. Sometimes they have the advantage, but in other races, the younger runners are at a distinct disadvantage. Do you know when? Well, do you?
Here's the ugly little secret about racing: You are going to lose a race more often than you'll win. How you handle a losing day goes a long way toward making futures days successful.
All right, the legwork is done. What's the first question you ask yourself? If it's not, "what chance does the favorite really have?", you're about to be lost in a maze of guesswork, supposition and, more than likely, buried in a stack of losing tickets. Successfully determining the relative strength or weakness of the favorite is the jumping off point to success. Failing to even address the question is the first step to jumping off the bridge.
When you go to the races, you can be overwhelmed by the number of different wagers. It's not just win, place, show and exacta betting anymore. Now there are Pick 3's, Pick 4's and Pick 6's plus Trifectas and Superfecta. Add in the Quinella, the Place Pick All and parlay wagering and you have a lot choose from.
All right, the legwork is done. What's the first question you ask yourself? If it's not, "what chance does the favorite really have?", you're about to be lost in a maze of guesswork, supposition and, more than likely, buried in a stack of losing tickets. Successfully determining the relative strength or weakness of the favorite is the jumping off point to success. Failing to even address the question is the first step to jumping off the bridge.
The Euro has surpassed the dollar in value and European imports are a fact of life at the race track, especially in California. Here's a strategy to help separate the 'live' Euro from the ones that will need a race.
Today's Racing Digest has always used handicapping factors as shortcut reference points for the reader. Regular users can quickly scan a race for HF 19's (likely to improve), HF 15's (Likely in-the-money finisher - read likely winner) or even HF 86 (veto or do not consider this horse). Here is a list of all the HF's and an explanation.
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