Aqueduct Picks for Today

What each figure means and how to use them:

CPR (Comprehensive Performance Rating) – Projected overall performance figure (early pace + final time). Use it to rank who is most likely to run the best race today – top CPRs are your starting-point contenders.

FIRE – The Digest’s comprehensive speed figure based on a horse’s speed throughout the race. The number reflects what we expect the horse to run today; every 2 FIRE points equals about one length, regardless of distance or surface.  This number is based on a 100 par, where our other figures are based off a 150 par. Use it with CPR, Fast Figs, running style, and Track Profile to compare today’s projected contenders.

Fast Figs – Power rating that blends class (RCL) + CPR + FIRE vs today’s race level. Use it to spot true standouts and live prices – top / co-top Fast Figs are the horses that most “tower” over the field on paper.

FNLRAT (Final Time Rating) – Projected final time vs the par for this distance/surface/class (about 3 points ≈ 1 length). Use it to judge finishing strength and see who can actually run fast enough late to win at this level.

Running style – Expected trip shorthand: F = frontrunner, P = presser, M = mid-pack, R = rear runner. Use it with the FIRE and Track Profile (found at the top of this section)  to decide whether the race shape helps or buries a horse.

RCL - (Recent Competitive Level) this is the highest class level at which a horse has been competitive locally within the last 90 days. An “x” in this column indicates a horse hasn’t been competitive at any level recently.  Compare this with the Digest Race Class Level for today's race listed in the top left of this section.  If there's a disconnect check recent workouts, the trainers record with any moves they're making today, and the BST FNLRAT (Best Final Time Rating) to determine if this horse can be competitive here or just getting raced into shape.

Handicapping Factors – Short numeric/letter codes that flag key angles (class moves, layoffs, trouble, equipment, workouts, etc.). Use them as quick red/green flags, download a Free User Guide which includes Handicapping Factors and complete definitions.

How to use these records when you handicap

Horse’s Track Record (Starts-W-P-S)  This is how the horse has actually run over this track’s surface and quirks.  Strong Track line like 4-3-1-0 = classic “horse-for-course” – big plus, especially if today’s race matches those past conditions (same surface, similar distance/class).  Weak Track line with a better All Tracks record = horse may just not love this track, even if they’re talented elsewhere.

All Tracks Record (Starts-W-P-S)  This shows the horse’s overall ability everywhere, not just here.  Good overall record + bad local record → talent is real, but the track/conditions might be the problem.  Mediocre overall + sharp Aqueduct record → horse might wake up only here, which is sneaky value if the crowd looks only at lifetime stats.  Always check sample size: 1–2 starts means “possible hint,” not a hard truth.

Jock/Trainer Win % (Starts-W-P-S)  This is how well the rider + trainer combo scores in the win column.  High win % on a decent number of starts = trainer and jockey know how to get live horses home together.  Low win % but small sample = mostly noise; don’t overreact.  Use this as a tie-breaker when two horses look similar on figures/class.

Jock/Trainer ITM % (Starts-W-P-S)  This is how often that combo finishes in the money (top 3).  High ITM with moderate win % = they show up and run their race a lot, even if they don’t always win. That’s huge for exotics (exactas, tris, supers).  Low ITM% with lots of starts = this pair is usually not landing meaningful punches; don’t pay short prices on that profile.

Putting it together:  Upgrade horses with strong Track records and a proven jock/trainer combo, especially if the figures already say they fit.  Be skeptical of short-priced horses with no local form and cold connections, unless the rest of the field is weak.  Use All Tracks vs Today's Track to decide if you’re looking at a true horse-for-course, a world-traveler who’ll be fine anywhere, or a horse that just hasn’t proven it yet under today’s conditions.  Free User Guide

How to use these Final Time & Class figures

BST FNLRAT (Best Final Time Rating)  What it is: The best Final Time Rating this horse has ever earned.  How to use it: Shows the horse’s ceiling. If today’s projected FNLRAT in the race header is close to this number, the horse is being asked to run near its top – dangerous if the price is still fair.

LSTFNLRAT (Last Final Time Rating)  What it is: The Final Time Rating from the most recent race.  How to use it: This is your current form snapshot. Strong last-out number = horse is already in good shape. Weak last-out number = you need a legit excuse (trip, surface, distance, layoff) before trusting them.

Pre FNLRAT (Previous Final Time Rating – 2-back)  What it is: The Final Time Rating the horse earned two races back.  How to use it: This gives you a baseline to compare with last out:  Last race better than Pre FNLRAT → horse is moving forward.  Last race worse than Pre FNLRAT → horse regressed last time and you’re asking if they can bounce back today.

Δ FNLRAT (Change in Final Time Rating)  What it is: The change from the 2-back race to the last race:  - Δ FNLRAT = LSTFNLRAT – Pre FNLRAT.  How to use it:  Positive number → last race was improvement over two-back.  Negative number → last race was a step backward (regression).  Roughly, 3 points ≈ 1 length. Use it to read the form cycle at a glance.

RRL (Recent Race Level)  What it is: Class level (Race Competition Level) of the horse’s last race.  How to use it: Compare RRL to today’s race level (found at the top of this section next to Digest Race Class Level: ) RRL lower than today → horse is stepping up in class.  RRL higher than today → horse is dropping in class.

Class Change (up / same / down)  What it is: Simple label for whether the horse is up, same, or down in class vs its last start.  How to use it:  Down in class + okay figures = classic wake-up setup.  Up in class + weak/flat figures = needs a legit reason to improve (barn move, trip excuse, second off layoff, etc.).  Same in class = judge them straight on the form cycle and today’s projected rating.

Flag  What it is: A quick English note combining figure pattern + class move (e.g. “Big regression; Up in class”).  How to use it: This is your instant sanity check:  “Big regression; up in class” → risky type at short odds.  “Down in class” with solid past FNLRATs → legit contender you don’t want to leave off tickets.  Free User Guide