Handicapping the 2-year-old’s
Summer time is upon us and that means we’ll see more and more races for 2-year-old’s. Handicapping a race filled with first time starters can be a headache, but after looking at some recent winners there may be a way to lessen the pain.
In a study of straight 2-year-old Maiden races throughout the country where the winner was a first-time starter, eight of the nine winners had at least two of three qualifying points listed below:
1. Trainer stats with first-time starters were at least 12% win percentage.
2. Sire stats with first-time starters were at least 13% win percentage.
3. Each horse in their last six published workouts had at least two gate works and/or a fast work.
We’ll highlight each horse using Today’s Racing Digest Data Lines along with the date and payout.
Bahnah: Churchill Downs June 6 Race 5 $5.80. Qualified with 1, 2 and 3.
Side Letter: Golden Gate June 7 Race 4 $3.60. Qualified with 1, 2 and 3.
Look Quickly: Golden Gate June 7 Race 6 $28.80. Did not have any qualifiers.
Sandbar: Churchill Downs June 8 Race 8 $9.40. Qualified with 1 and 3.
Ride The World: Woodbine June 8 Race 4 $6.80. Qualified with 1, 2 and 3.
Red Outlaw: Betfair Hollywood Park June 9 Race 9 $5.20. Qualified with 1, 2 and 3.
South Sound: Betfair Hollywood Park June 14 Race 2 $5.80. Qualified with 1, 2 and 3.
Specialnightaction: Calder June 15 Race 8 $9.00. Qualified with 1, 2 and 3.
See My Tail Lites: Emerald Downs June 16 Race 3 $6.40. Qualified with 1 and 3.
Now there are no groundbreaking prices here as all eight qualifiers paid $9.40 or less. However, the study shows what to look for when handicapping 2-year-old first-time starters in straight Maiden races. Maybe we can all find more winners this way and can leave the aspirin at home!