Just Bet On The Last Winner
Don’t mention any of what you’re about to read here to handicapping “Scientologists” who believe you can’t win at the races without slaving away for hours on end before making a bet. You know the kind. They buy “the sheets” and worry about things like wind velocity, feet per second and nanogram weight shifts while attempting to measure the ability of every horse in the field to the umpteenth degree. They believe in a higher power when it comes to handicapping and that power has nothing to do with a racing God, whether benevolent, evil or just downright mischievous
The computer program has yet to be invented that has cracked the code when it comes to beating the races, no matter what you may read in various advertisements and handicapping publications. Now, don’t get me wrong. I’m not denigrating hard work or scientific progress in any field, including racing. However, when it comes to playing this game, sometimes it’s best to just keep things simple.
Now, if I were to tell you that you could have had a 50/1 shot disqualified and still nearly doubled your money betting at Santa Anita and Golden Gate Fields last week with NO handicapping whatsoever, you’d probably think you were reading some mail-order flyer from a dying guru hawking his “system of the century”. Furthermore, if I told you that you would have placed bets on 124 different horses during this two track, four-day span and hit nearly 20% winners at an average mutuel of almost $19, you’d be sure this was some sort of scam.
But, it’s all true. The secret? Just bet on all horses that won their last race, no matter where or when.
Playing potential repeaters is hardly a new angle to the game. However, many of these winners from last week came off victories that did not earn particularly good ratings and, thus, the horses were underbet. Some came off layoffs or shipped in from other venues and were virtually ignored.
Now, I’m not really advocating a blind bet on every horse that won its last race. However, racing is a game about winning (for both the horse and the handicapper) and, truth be told, any entrant coming off a victory (no matter when, where or who it was against) should not be eliminated willy-nilly. They merit careful scrutiny and when off at long odds, could be worthy of inclusion in various exotic wagers when a ‘spread’ attack is employed. Although last week may have been extraordinary, feel free to go back on some recent charts and don’t be surprised if you find quite a few more double-digit payoffs among the repeater category.
Just remember, don’t tell the smart guys about this. They’ll just ramble on about how this one or that one doesn’t run enough feet-per-second to win the race.