Kentucky Derby 2020: BC Juvenile Recap
The
very early Kentucky Derby 2020 picture was turned upside down following a top
three surprise in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Santa Anita Park on
Friday, Nov. 1. Dennis’ Moment stumbled at the start, Eight Rings chased and
retreated, and Maxfield scratched. It was anything goes after those events, and
Storm the Court lead the longshot parade at the Great Race Place. The next
Derby points race is the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov.
30.
Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race Recaps
BC JUVENILE Recap (11-1-19) – Winner: Storm the
Court ($93.80)

It was bombs away in the Juvenile, but this was probably not as big a surprise
as the payoffs suggest. After Breeders’ Futurity (G1) hero Maxfield scratched,
we were left with a less than stellar field of eight with two apparent
standouts. Dennis’ Moment was the favorite based on a big local workout and
endless hype from Dale Romans. His main accomplishment was a grade three
victory in the Iroquois, and that first Derby points race is hardly a predictor
of long term success. Local grade one winner Eight Rings was the second choice,
and he sure looked like a need to lead type for Bob Baffert. Dennis’ drew the
rail and figured to save ground tracking the pace, and those plans went out the
window after he stumbled at the start. The favorite was virtually eliminated
before he got started, and the race should have fallen into the lap of Eight
Rings. The latter should have been sent to the lead, but jockey John Velazquez
is frequently comfortable pressing outside in these situations, and he allowed
Storm the Court and Flavien Prat to set the pace. Eight Rings easily handled
Storm the Court in the American Pharoah (G1), but the tables were turned today.
Storm the Court fought hard throughout on the lead and failed to let anyone
pass. Golden Gate turf route maiden winner Anneau d’Or stalked the pace, came
up to the early leader and looked poised to go on by, but he was turned away to
miss by a neck. The top two were well clear of show finisher Wrecking Crew. The
latter chased throughout and was best of the rest. Scabbard ended up a flat
4th. He was the third most likely winner on paper after his runner-up finish in
the Iroquois (G3), but that race is looking worse by the moment. Full Flat, a
fading Eight Rings, and Shoplifted were next, and Dennis’ Moment trailed
throughout. The final time (1:44.93) was much better than the BC Juvenile
Fillies, but this did not feel like a strong race, especially with the
non-efforts by the two favorites. You can draw a line through this race for
Dennis’ Moment. He had no chance to strut his stuff, but he has not really done
much yet. He is 2-for-4 with one grade three win. Eight Rings seems to need
everything his own way, and he is just too unreliable. The one horse to watch
might be Anneau d’Or. This was just his second lifetime start and first on
dirt. Just like Donna Veloce in the Juvenile Fillies, he put in an excellent
effort considering his lack of experience.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky
Derby 2019 Contenders (11-10-19)
(1) GOUVERNEUR
MORRIS (Constitution
– Addison Run, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) – Owner (Team Valor International & WinStar Farm
LLC)
Comments: His debut in the SAR slop at 5.5f on Sept. 2 was strong. He was
bumped at the break and chased the pace, cruised up outside in the stretch, and
finished with plenty in reserve to win by a very easy nine lengths. They were
asking a lot in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) second time out. He was asked to
stretch out three furlongs from the outside post in his first start vs. winners
and first start around two turns. He raced wide throughout before running to
the lead turning for home, and he fought hard for 2nd after Maxfield passed
him. All in all a very solid performance. He will spend the next six weeks at
WinStar Farm, and will return to Todd Pletcher’s barn after that to prepare for
a winter campaign in Florida. His connections are looking for a growth spurt in
the off season.
Derby Points (4)
————–
(2) TIZ THE
LAW (Constitution
– Tizfiz, by Tiznow)
Trainer (Barclay Tagg) – Owner (Sackatoga Stable)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.66 (5/22) at Belmont Park on Nov. 10.
Comments: The promising NY-bred has the Funny Cide connections in his corner.
There is no way to know if he will be that good, but he is certainly off to a
fast start after a maiden sprint win and a smart victory in the Champagne
Stakes (G1). They decided to skip the BC Juvenile, and he is gearing up for the
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs Nov. 30. He can make a case
for the 2yo title with a win under the Twin Spires in a few weeks.
Derby Points (10)
————–
(3) HONOR
A. P. (Honor
Code – Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
Trainer (John Shirreffs) – Owner (C R K Stable LLC)
Latest Workout: 4f in 48.60 (7/66) at Santa Anita Park Nov. 4.
Comments: Rallied from 10th to finish 2nd in his 6f bow at DMR Aug. 17.
Stretched out to a mile at SA second time out Oct. 13, and easily went all the
way in a sharp effort. He might be a good one for John Shirreffs. A race like
the Los Al Futurity (G1) on Dec. 7 makes sense.
————–
(4) THOUSAND
WORDS (Pioneerof
the Nile – Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) – Owner (Albaugh Family Stable & Spendthrift Farm)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.20 (16/55) at Santa Anita Nov. 7.
Comments: $1 million purchase came out running at SA in a 6.5f dirt sprint Oct.
26. He was the slight favorite over experienced rival Thunder Code. The latter
bobbled at the start from post 2 and cruised up to set the pace. He looked gone
in the stretch but Thousand Words stalked outside and wore down the leader to
win by a 1/2. Thunder Code was 6+ clear of the rest. This was a professional
debut and he just seemed to be getting warmed up at this sprint distance. The Los
Alamitos Futurity would be a logical target.
————–
(5) MAXFIELD (Street Sense – Velvety,
by Bernardini)
Trainer (Brendan P. Walsh) – Owner (Godolphin, LLC)
Comments: I liked his one mile debut at CD Sept. 14. He broke slow from post 2
and rallied from 10th of 11 to prevail by a bit less than a length. He made his
stakes debut in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, and he stormed home
to a convincing win from off the pace. He was supposed to run in the BC
Juvenile (G1), but had a minor leg issue and was forced to scratch. He will
probably winter in Florida, and his sophomore campaign has not been mapped out
yet. Something they are going to have to work on going forward is the starting
gate. He broke slow both times. It has not been an issue yet, but as he faces
deeper, more talented runners at longer distances, he cannot afford to make any
mistakes.
Derby Points (10)

————–
(6) ENFORCEABLE (Tapit –
Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
Trainer (Mark Casse) – Owner (John Oxley)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in 1:00.40 (1/37) at Churchill Downs on Nov. 9.
Comments: We already know he can go at least a mile and an eighth, because he
graduated at that distance at SAR Aug. 22. He also has the pedigree. Dam
Justwhistledixie has produced stakes winners Kingly, Mohaymen, and New Year’s
Day. His aforementioned maiden win was in his fourth start, and he ended up a
solid 3rd in his stakes debut in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity Oct. 5. The Remsen
(G2) at Aqueduct on Dec. 7 might be his next engagement.
Derby Points (2)
————–
(7) INDEPENDENCE
HALL (Constitution
– Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) – Owner (Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Twin
Creek Racing Stables)
Comments: This one really came out of nowhere. It is not easy to win first
time out from the rail post, and he did it rather easily at the tricky debut
distance of seven furlongs at Parx Sept. 21. He was supposed to run in an
allowance race at Laurel second time out, but there was a water main break and
the card was scrapped. They decided to ship to Aqueduct for the Nashua (G3) on
Nov. 3, and he chased the pace and ran off the screen in a 12+ length tally.
There were some promising runners in that 9-horse field, and he emphatically
swatted them away. I have no idea how far he wants to run, but he sure looked
good in his first two starts at seven panels and a one turn mile. The Remsen
(G2) at Aqueduct Dec. 7 is being considered.
————–
(8) DENNIS’
MOMENT (Tiznow
– Transplendid, by Elusive Quality)
Trainer (Dale Romans) – Owner (Albaugh Family Racing LLC)
Comments: Clipped heels and dumped Robby Albarado in his June 23 bow at CD, and
followed that up with a 19+ length tally in a 7f maiden affair at Ellis Park
July 27. He stretched out in his stakes debut in Churchill’s Iroquois (G3)
Sept. 14, and he tracked the pace and easily held off Scabbard in a solid
effort. Based on his back-to-back wins and strong workouts, he was the
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) favorite, but he stumbled at the start and never
got involved in a last place finish at Santa Anita Nov. 1. He was given a clean
bill of health after that, and will get a 45-day break before rejoining the
Romans barn at Gulfstream Park. His 2020 Derby trail schedule will be decided
at a later date.
Derby Points (10)

————–
(9) GREEN
LIGHT GO (Hard
Spun – Light Green, by Pleasantly Perfect)
Trainer (James Jerkens) – Owner (Stronach Stables)
Comments: Started out fast with a 5.5f debut win at BEL July 4, and a solid
score over subsequent Iroquois (G3) runner-up Scabbard in the Saratoga Special
(G2) at 6.5f Aug. 10. He was the Hopeful Stakes (G1) favorite, but scratched
when the track came up wet. I thought he ran okay in the Champagne. He gamely
held 2nd that day and will get a six week freshening in Ocala, Florida. He is
expected to rejoin the Jimmy Jerkens barn after that, and look for him on the
Derby trail at Gulfstream Park next year.
Derby Points (4)
(10) AJAAWEED (Curlin – Assiya, by
Daaher)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) – Owner (Shadwell Stable)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.47 (6/28) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on Nov. 7.
Comments: Did not have a great start in his SAR dirt sprint bow Aug. 10, and he
ended up 5th of 9 that day. I like the professionalism he showed second time
out. He was stuck inside and waiting for room at one mile at BEL Sept. 11, and
he swung out in the stretch and pulled clear to win by 4+ lengths under Joel
Rosario. The Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland was his stakes debut, and he
ended up an okay 4th that day.
Derby Points (1)
————–
(11) ALPHA
SIXTY SIX (Liam’s
Map – Giant Sensation, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) – Owner (Paul P. Pompa, Jr.)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:03.58 (21/36) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on Nov.
10.
Comments: His Belmont debut at 6.5f was solid. He stalked from the outside
post, chased Hemlock in the stretch, and gradually wore that one down to win by
a neck. He galloped out with energy and seems to want more ground. He did not
have a great start in his second career start in the Champagne, and that really
cost him in an off the board finish.
————–
THE NEXT NINE:
(12) Structor, (13) Anneau d’Oro, (14) Storm the Court, (15) Eight Rings, (16) Three Technique, (17) Toledo, (18) Thunder Code, (19) Authentic, (20) Democratic Values