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Kentucky Oaks 2019 for April 5

A trio of big 100-40-20-10 Kentucky Oaks points races will be run on April 6, and there is a small 10-4-2-1 points race at Keeneland on April 7. Bellafina is the star of the weekend and the likely Kentucky Oaks favorite if she wins the Santa Anita Oaks (G1) on Saturday.   


Kentucky Oaks 2019 Points Race Analysis for Saturday (4-6-19)


SA 3 (G1 SA Oaks, 8.5f) #5 Bellafina (2-5) is faster than these on paper and appears to be training well for this engagement. She is 3-for-3 at SA and probably wins this at low odds. #1 Flor de La Mar (5-1) looked great in her winning sprint debut on a fast track but did not seem to care for the slop in a fading 5th as the strong favorite at seven panels March 2. She is bred to be a good one and might rebound on dry land. #2 Chasing Yesterday (3-1) has not done much wrong with five wins from six starts. The tactical type reconnects with Mike Smith and should be fitter after winning the Sunland Oaks on class in her first start of the year. The Plays: Exacta 5-1


 


AQU 8 (G2 Gazelle, 9f) #4 POSITIVE SPIRIT (5-2) made nice progress last year and ended her 2-year-old season with a romping win at this course-distance in the Demoiselle (G2). She was terrible in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) at FG in her sophomore bow and that one was too bad to believe. Jose Ortiz takes the call, she fired a bullet for this March 24, and she should be close to tepid fractions. Actually, she could be loose on the lead if they send her out of there. #5 Always Shopping (3-1) broke her maiden in the Busanda at this course-distance Feb 3. The well-bred daughter of Awesome Again-Stopshoppingmaria is steadily improving for Pletcher and figures to stalk the pace. #6 Proud Emma (6-1) exits back-to-back good tries in the slop at SA and she won two straight on a fast track before that. This is a great spot to jump into the stakes ranks and she might be able to upset these with another forward move. #3 Off Topic (5-1) was only a 1/2 length behind her stablemate Always Shopping in a MSW affair last fall. Since that event, she graduated at the end of last year, and was a solid 2nd in her first start vs. winners Feb 17. She continues to slowly improve and should not mind this longer trip. The Plays: #4 to win, Exacta 4/3-5-6, Exacta 3-5-6/4


KEE 9 (G1 Ashland, 8.5f) #3 LADY KATE (15-1) is lightly raced and can compete her if she moves forward again. She rallied to win her dirt sprint bow at GP Jan 12 and did all of the pace dirty work in a solid place finish in her second career start in the Suncoast Feb 9. #6 Restless Rider (5-2) makes a belated sophomore bow for McPeek, and she was one of the top juvenile fillies in the land last year. She won the Alcibiades (G1) here last year and tightened the screws for this with a 5f bullet at GP March 30. She figures to stalk the pace and can win this if she has improved over the winter. #4 Jaywalk (8-5) was the deserving 2-year-old filly champion after back-to-back wins in the Frizette (G1) and BC Juvenile Fillies (G1) to end her 2018 campaign. She was terrible in her 3-year-old bow in the Davona Dale (G2) and figures to be aggressively handled in this route under her new rider Castellano. There is a good chance that she was short last time, but she might not have improved from age 2 to 3. #5 Feedback (3-1) was cross-entered in Sunday’s Beaumont (G3) at seven panels, and she is expected to go in that spot for Chad Brown. The Plays: #3 to win, Exacta 3/4-6, Exacta 4-6/3


Kentucky Oaks 2019 Points Race Recaps for Saturday (3-30-19)


Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) Recap from Gulfstream Park (3-30-19) - Winner: Champagne Anyone ($17.20)


This was not a deep field for an Oaks prep with only six going to the gate. Speed was king at Gulfstream on March 30, and the top three finishers in this race controlled proceedings throughout. Cookie Dough set the pace from the outside post but figured to have distance limitations. Champagne Anyone tracked from 2nd, took the lead in the lane, and held off highly regarded Chad Brown second timer Dunbar Road to win by a 1/2 length. The latter stalked the pace in 3rd and was grinding away in the lane but could not quite get to the more experienced winner. Cookie Dough held 3rd and Point of Honor was the only runner trying to make up any ground on the top three but was done in by the speed favoring oval. She needs more ground and a fair racetrack. Safta was next and it was a long way back to Bella Ciao.  


 

Kentucky Oaks Points Leaderboard (through 4-5-19)


1. Champagne Anyone - 113 points


2. Street Band - 105 points


3. Liora - 71 points


4. Chasing Yesterday - 60 points


5. Serengeti Empress - 60 points


6. Chocolate Kisses - 51 points


7. Jeltrin - 51 points


8. Espresso Shot - 50 points


9. Cookie Dough - 40 points


10. Dunbar Road - 40 points


11. Jaywalk - 35 points


12.  Bellafina - 32 points


13. Eres Tu - 24 points


14.  Restless Rider - 22 points


15. Sweet Diane - 22 points


16. Oxy Lady - 21 points


17. Point of Honor - 20 points


18. Naughty Joker - 20 points


19. Motion Emotion - 20 points


20. Positive Spirit - 10 points


Jarrod Horak’s Fabulous Five Kentucky Oaks 2019 Contenders (4-5-19)


#1 - BELLAFINA - Wrapped up April 6 SA Oaks (G1) preparations with solid 5f move March 30.    


#2 - RESTLESS RIDER - Fired 5f bullet March 30 and is set for 3-year-old bow in April 6 Ashland (G1).   


#3 - JAYWALK - Shipped to Keelenand and worked half-mile for April 6 Ashland (G1) March 31.    


#4 - LIORA - Rachel Alexandra (G2) runner-up added blinkers and was second best again in Fair Grounds Oaks (G2).


#5 - POSITIVE SPIRIT - Giving her another chance in April 6 Gazelle (G2) after Rachel Alexandra (G2) clunker.
 

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