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Kentucky Oaks 2019 Update for 2-1-19

There have been a pair of Kentucky Oaks 2019 points races so far this year and Bellafina was by far the more impressive of the two winners. There are a trio of Oaks points races on the docket this weekend beginning with the Forward Gal (G3) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 2.


Kentucky Oaks 2019 Points Race Analysis†


Forward Gal Stakes (G3) from Gulfstream Park (2-2-19)


GP 9 (G3 Forward Gal, 7f) #1 CHAMPAGNE ANYONE (8-1) got no pace help in the Golden Rod (G2) on a wet track Nov. 24. Before that wet track affair, she won two straight races and her CPR and Final Ratings were on the move. I can definitely see her making a nice late run and winning this event. #4 Feedback (6-5) looked super in her Saratoga debut last summer (field-best 144 Final Rating) for Chad Brown and the clear runner-up was a next-out winner. She should make her presence felt throughout and might return in the pink for a sharp outfit. #3 Fashion Faux Pas (4-1) owns the best Pace Ratings in this field but I am not sure she wants to go seven panels. I would like her much more if this race was a furlong shorter. The Plays: #1 to win, Exacta Box 1-4, Trifecta 1-4/1-3-4/1-3-4


Martha Washington Stakes from Oaklawn Park (2-2-19)


OP 8 (Martha Washington, 8f) #6 POWER GAL (9-2) appears ready to stretch out after a trio of sprint starts to begin her career. She should get stamina from her sire Empire Maker and her dam Nan graduated in a route in 2008 and competed in multiple graded routes in 2009. She sports a trio of local works for this. #2 Marathon Queen (3-1) tries to stretch out after a solid debut maiden win at FG Dec. 22. She is bred to go this far and looms a pace factor at the very least. Steve Asmussen is five for his last fifteen and has strong stats with his dirt route starters. #4 Sunset Wish (9-5) improved her Final Ratings in all five outings and she won her last three starts. I like her tactical speed and she looked good running down #5 Taylorís Spirit (5-2) in a $75k stakes affair at Delta Downs Jan. 4. The latter is 4-for-6 and should make her presence felt throughout. The Plays: #6 to win, Exacta Box 2-6, Exacta 2-6/4-5†


Busanda Stakes from Aqueduct (2-3-19)


AQU 8 (Busanda, 9f) #1 ALWAYS SHOPPING (6-1) is still a maiden but improved her FIRE, CPR, Pace, Final Rating, and Last Fraction in all three starts including a clear place finish in a local at mile special weight affair Dec. 14. She should save all of the ground stalking the pace from the advantageous inside post and I like the confident placement by Todd Pletcher. I played #6 Elegant Zip (6-1) multiple times last year and the consistent NY-bred filly fired trifecta shots in five of six outings. She owns competitive numbers in shorter races but I am not sure that she wants to go this far. #9 Filly Joel (2-1) was a distant 3rd when last seen in the Demoiselle (G2) and runaway winner Positive Spirit was in a race of her own. She romped in an 8.5 furlong maiden affair at Belmont before that and looms a pace factor at the very least. #11 Miss Marilyn (5-1) set the pace and held off my top choice Always Shopping Dec. 14 and that was only her second career start. She has plenty of upside but I am not thrilled with the outside draw. The Plays: #1 to win, Exacta Box 1-6, Exacta 1-6/9-11†


Kentucky Oaks 2019 Points Race Recaps


Silverbulletday Stakes Recap (1-19-19) - Winner: Needs Supervision


This was not a fast race. For final time comparison, War of Will won the Lecomte (G3) at a mile and seventy yards in 1:43.44. The pace was comparable in the Silverbulletday and the fillies completed the same distance in 1:45.34. Needs Supervision stalked the pace and gamely held off Eres Tu by a bit less than a length. The top two were well clear of show finisher and 3-2 favorite Grandaria. Last yearís Golden Rod (G2) winner Liora was a disappointing 4th and was followed by Cowgirls Like Us, Mandy Blue, and Fun Finder.†


Needs Supervision Horse Racing Handicapping Past Performances


Kentucky Oaks Points Leaderboard (through Silverbulletday 1-19-19)


1.† Jaywalk - 30 points


2.† Restless Rider - 22 points


3.† Bellafina - 22 points


4.† Liora - 11 points


5. Chasing Yesterday - 10 points


6.† Serengeti Empress - 10 points


7.† Positive Spirit - 10 points


8. Needs Supervision - 10 points


9. Vibrance - 8 points


10. Mother Mother - 6 points


Jarrod Horakís Fabulous Five Kentucky Oaks 2019 Contenders (2-1-19)


#1 - JAYWALK - Champion two-year-old filly breezed five panels at Palm Meadows on Jan. 29.† †


#2 - BELLAFINA - Looked great in Santa Ynez (G2) at Santa Anita on Jan. 6 and worked a half-mile in 48.20 on Feb. 1.


#3 - POSITIVE SPIRIT - Razor sharp Demoiselle (G2) winner breezed half-mile at Payson Park on Jan. 26.


#4 - RESTLESS RIDER - Consistent filly fired exacta shots in all six starts. The grade one winner has yet to work this year.† †


#5 - FLOR DE LA MAR - Super debut for Baffert/Godolphin runner at Santa Anita Jan. 20. She worked five panels Jan. 29.

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